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“The safest place to be during an earthquake would be in a stationary store.” - George Carlin
(0:20) I want to show you something…
(0:32) Seismic Triggers: A new Earthquake Forecasting Model [3.27.2013] Lets go back in time…
(0:48) Yellow, Solar Wind speed, is pushing 600 km/s, more than double what it was two days ago. The green temperature rises in kind, while the orange density falls with the speedier particles; this has 'coronal hole stream' written all over it.
(1:01) We look three days ago to find a dark coronal hole directly facing Earth. But finding the source is only half the battle.
(1:08) Here on Earth our Magnetic Shield is holding form. We are taking some growing inductions, but the Riometer was off for hours and we lack the plasma penetration data.
(1:17) This is of concern because both the ACE and GOES show charged particle anomalies here, both protons and electrons, our planets energy appears to be in flux.
(1:26) And with even more Space Weather set to strike this week, and Venus set to heliocentrically oppose Jupiter while Mercury is swinging in for a Geocentric Solar Conjunction. Together these make our first significant Quake Watch of 2013.
3MIN News January 30, 2013:
(1:49) You can see some dark Coronal Holes, the leader is set to face Earth today nearly square on the Equator. These Coronal Holes are a piece of the Earthquake watch and early February appears to see a few pass our eye.
(2:01) But it's not just Coronal Holes coming in Early February, the planets will play a role as well. While Mercury and Mars Heliocentrically conjoin today, that is they line up as seen from the Sun. I'll flip this around to put Earth back there-zooming out, tilting-you can see Neptune down here and as I bring us forward into February; you can tell that Mercury and Mars will Geocentrically conjoin Neptune, and then-as seen from the Earth-they will conjoin each other. Got a full moon around that same time, conjoining all of them.
(2:31) Here are the planet positions through early March, that strong 'Watch Period' to kick off February will coincide with those Coronal Holes I showed earlier. We should see our first uptick in 6 magnitude quakes or higher leading up to the New Moon on the 10th, maybe a day or two afterwards.
3MIN News February 14, 2013:
(2:59) Folks this is not a 'Major Watch,' but with Energetic Flux, Umbral change, unstable Geomagnetic conditions and the Coronal Hole position lets call a 'Minor Quake Watch' for 48 hours.
3MIN News February 20, 2013:
(3:18) We are a few hours from the Neptune Solar Conjunction. If I turn off the atmosphere, we see them right there. One day forward shows the conjunction over. So with Solar Instability and a couple of Coronal Holes on the Disk, we'll combine those three for a 'Minor Quake Watch.' Remember the difference between 'Minor' and 'Major Watches.'
4MIN News February 25, 2013:
(3:43) Red dominating the Disk and that's these dark Coronal Holes you see on GOES and the SDO. Not quite facing the Earth yet, but with the Full Moon hours away and four conjunctions set to follow in an eight day span we're calling our second 'Major Watch' of 2013.
3MIN News March 10, 2013:
(4:06) Looks like today will finally be the day another Coronal Hole faces Earth. Even now you can see how the Umbral Field has kept us from really getting a direct look at this opening in the Solar Atmosphere.
4MIN NEWS March 23, 2013:
(4:23) Top Story looking forward is the 'Major Quake Watch' set to begin when the Umbral Fields allow the Magnetic Opening in the Solar Atmosphere to face Earth; might be tonight, might be tomorrow. The Coronal Hole is coming and the Planets start lining up right afterwards; still got a plasma filament turning in ahead of that Coronal Hole.
(4:39) We are looking for an uptick in 6 magnitude quakes or higher starting in the next few days. Eyes open, no fear. It's 6:30 AM Eastern Time and that's the news.
(4:56) Everything you need to track these things is cited with a link in the description box below this video, including this one: the USGS Earthquake Database search.
(5:04) It is automatically set to search the globe but you can specify an area if you want. As of time of access it is 7:45 PM Eastern Time on March 27th, 2013. We will look at just this year so far and we are only interested in 6 magnitude quakes and higher.
(5:20) Your search results come up in a form like this: it will give you the date, time, location, magnitude and other data points about the seismic events that match your search criteria.
(5:30) So I number the days of the year, spread the quakes out over the calendar for analysis and assign these scores to the quakes; multiple in one day are added with a maximum score of ten.
(5:41) I set the 'Watch Days' from our daily news videos and arbitrarily made the number 5, but it really doesn't matter. But the first and last days of the watch are tapered for a visual effect you'll see later.
(5:51) If you are truly inclined, you could pause the video multiple times and remake this chart (pictured above), although, I am going to do that for you as the days go by. It's one of the many topics covered in the Daily News videos posted around 6:30 AM Eastern Time every day, right here with about 78,000 other Suspicious0bservers.
(6:08) As time goes on this list will grow long, but up to now we fit all 86 days on the first page. Lets isolate the seven Earthquake Watches we have had in 2013 and the time covered. You can see them spread across the timeline: 33 of the 86 days in 2013 so far have had 'Watches' for increased activity.
(6:28) We did the same, here, isolating the largest Earthquakes of 2013. That large spike was the Salomon Islands 8.0 and multiple aftershocks and but for the score cap of ten it would have been much bigger.
(6:40) And this video would be somewhat useless without this: combining the two. Okay, I began the year missing a significant quake; a 7-pointer in Alaska. And as you can see: I missed a few others. Now there are way more factors than the Cosmic ones mentioned, here, including air pressure, sea level, temperature, magma movement, wind direction and just natural releases of pressure.
(7:04) But when you combine Coronal Holes, planetary aspects and energetic flux from Space Weather it begins to paint a picture.
(7:15) Pictured to the right is the 'Earthquake Watch' Record as of March 27th, 2013.
(7:35) This is an open source system. A free non-exclusive worldwide license…is hereby given to everyone…to improve this system and work together…to predict location and magnitude...and hopefully save lives.
Published on Mar 27, 2013
March.27.2013 8:05pm EST - [March.28.2013 0005UTC]
Part 2 Will Explain the Earthquake Factors In Depth, and Hypothesize the Mechanisms
Original music by Nemes1s
0bserver Shop: http://www.cafepress.com/s0s
SOHO Solar Wind: http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/
Planetary Orbital Diagram - Ceres1 JPL:http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr...
NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSy...
NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/
GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sxi/goes15/i...
GONG Magnetic Maps: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/ondem...
QUAKES LIST FULL: http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/s...
RSOE: http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php [That cool alert map I use]
86 Days of 2013
33 Days of Earthquake Watch: 38.4%
53 Days Without Watch: 61.6%
37 Large Earthquakes
30 of them During Watch: 81.1%
7 of them Not During Watch: 18.9%
7 Earthquake Uptick Watches so Far - 100% Have seen 'Upticks'
Average Earthquakes Per Day [Total] = 0.43
Average Earthquakes Per Watch Day = 1.12
Average Earthquakes Per NoWatch Day = 0.13